Only about 20% of female Weddell seal pups survive to have pups of their own. So every Weddell seal mom is already exceptional for having survived to adulthood to reproduce. In biology, a big question is what makes winners and losers among individuals of a particular species. Over the years, scientists with the long-term Erebus Bay Weddell Seal Population Study have been investigating the many ways that Weddell seals vary both phenotypically and genetically to try to determine if there are differences among Weddell seal pups that may account for their future success. In this new 4K HDR project video, lead scientist Prof. Jay Rotella discusses findings in a paper by project post-doctoral scientist Dr. Kaitlin Macdonald that luck or chance may play a big role in Weddell seal pup survival.

This new 4K HDR project video was produced with video footage by Sophia Rotella, Parker Levinson, Dr. Jay Rotella and Abram Brown, and edited by Mary Lynn Price. All footage shot on iPhones.

Dr. Kaitlin Macdonald notes in her doctoral dissertation, “[I]t is possible that beyond weaning mass, chance may drive much of the differences in survival outcomes of young Weddell seals.” From “Patterns And Drivers Of Variation In Weddell Seal Survival Rates, And Population Implications Of Unobserved Individual Heterogeneity In Vital Rates”, submitted July 2024.

For a fascinating read on this general question of skill vs. luck, check out the book The Success Equation by Michael J. Mauboussin about skill vs. luck relationships in various human endeavors, or watch a video lecture by the author, below.

– Mary Lynn Price